Lumpy droprate, GL all

[Hellomynameis]

Hi, I just did a statistical analysis of the droprate of Frigid Frostling and Lumpy combined. According to wowhead(the count, not the rounded percentage) the droprate of Lumpy is 2.94%, and Frigid Frostling is 3.59%. Out of these two I would say the droprate of Lumpy(2.94%) is more accurate, since its a bigger sample size(83401 compared to 16108). Funny how the sample size is bigger on a pet that has been available shorter. It's the difference of summer/winter activity that is to blame, of course, and especially the holiday boom of players. But I digress, sorry.

Why would I want to combine these two droprates? Simple really, they are both from a world event, and are only available 15 days a year. Logically there is no reason why Blizzard would differentiate between the two droprates.

The combined droprate is 3032 in 99509, or 3.04696%. I think its safe to say its programmed to have a 3% droprate.

In the spirit of fair trading 1:1, it would be safe to trade Frigid Frostling for Lumpy, or the other way around, if it hadn't been for one thing changing their value. The time of the year. These pets have highest value when it has been 5.75 months since the even ended, and when its 5.75 months until the event starts. Comparably Lumpy would have highest value 25th of June(26th if its leapyear), and Frigid Frostling would have the highest value 6th of January. You may argue that the value rises the very second the event ends since they are no longer available, but this is not true since it will be a fair amount available at the auctionhouse still. And you may also argue the value just rises the longer it has been since the event because the item becomes rarer and rarer, but this is not the case because people look in their calendar and think; "oh, I can wait, its not that long until the event". Supply and demand in perfect harmony.

I won't even try to value these pets in gold, but it is possible to put a relative value on them based on droprate and availability.

Statisticly, if you do the quest each day on one character, you will have a ~37% chance of getting this pet. If you do it each day on two characters, you have a ~60% chance of getting it. 3 chars ~= 75% chance. 4 chars ~= 84% chance. Even if you do it on 7 chars each day, there is still a 4% chance you won't get this pet.. But hey, lets be optimistic, there also exist players who don't care about pets, only gold, and you may find it on the auctionhouse.

TL;DR
Happy hunting/holidays, Lumpy has a 3% droprate from a daily quest you can do each day for 15 days. And don't go trading Frigid Frostling for Lumpy now, they are not a fair trade these days.

[Formerruling]

I had frigid already, I just bought lumpy instead of waiting and trying again because both are commonly listed around 1k gold which is less than nothing nowadays.

[Thedancinghare]

Yeah, I did the quest every single day without missing last year and never saw a Lumpy. When I saw one for cheap, I just bought it. If I am lucky enough to get a spare I'll sell or trade it

[Hellomynameis]

It takes a while to travel, but finally I have all my alts stationed above the snowman, ready to do daily after daily.
[url=http://i.imgur.com/se51x.jpg][/url]
11 alts x 15 days = 165 tries to get my a Lumpy. He will be mine this year! Hillsbrad Foothills are camped!

Guild cloak for Orgrimmar portal + hearthstone in Tarren Mill = fast quest.

28% chance of getting him the first day, when I use 11 chars, but did I?

...yes! I got him on the 9th try!

Edit:
Day 1, 11 chars: 1x Lumpy
Day 2, 11 chars: 2x Lumpy
Day 3, 11 chars: Nothing
Day 4, 11 chars: 1x Lumpy
Day 5, 11 chars: 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot
Day 6, 11 chars: Nothing
Day 7, 11 chars: 1x Miniature Winter Veil Tree
Day 8, 11 chars: 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot
Day 9: afk
Day 10: afk (Christmas Eve)
Day 11. 2 chars: 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot
Day 12, 6 chars: 1x Miniature Winter Veil Tree
Day 13, 11 chars: 1x Lumpy
Day 14. 8 chars: 1x Lumpy and 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot
Day 15, 1 char: Nothing
Day 16, 4 char: Nothing
Day 17: afk
Day 18, 3 chars: 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot (Happy new year!)

[Tennberg]

No luck at all last year when he was available to get.

This year, I have only 1 toon that is high enough to do the daily quest. After doing the quest, I opened the stolen present to find not only Lumpy, but also a Clockwork Rocket Bot (which I already had)! I'm very excited I actually got him (and got him early, since I'll be on vacation for half of Winter's Veil).

[Cloud]

Got him last year.........two days in having 10 characters to run with I got a second one, might sell this later.
Or thinking about it I may need it down the line still need Clockwork Rocket bot if it doesnt drop might try to swap for that

[Waveryn]

Good luck all, running 4 toons this year, got another blue clockwork bot yesterday already.

[Hellomynameis]

I just noticed something, its not 14/15 days anymore, its 18 days this year.. I am unsure, but I would guess that in the US you get 19 days worth of quests if you stay up the last night. In EU we will only get 18 because of our server maintenance.

[Linaomine]

I already had the frigid frostling and I managed to get lumpy on the first day this year apparently I was very lucky on that

[Talmar]

last year I had 8 characters and did the daily every day and got nothing on any of them.

When Mists dropped I traded a couple holiday pets I had in the bank for a Lumply with someone in my Alliance guild.

I won't be doing the daily this year. Maybe once or twice just to see him at 90 but that's it.

[Nearlysober]

Wish this was a queue-able event, rather than daily quest. Makes it easier to farm on alts.

I had no luck last year with multiple characters, and I'm worried about it this year. The first few Lumpy's started popping up on the Sargeras AH yesterday... high population server with a crazy economy, the first were listed at about 15k.

Yesterday, undercutting had it down to 5k and I almost bit. I'll see if it goes a bit lower, but I just want to buy this guy and be done with the daily

[Waveryn]

Don't give up, I almost fainted yesterday when lumpy finally showed up on my second alt doing the daily that day, Good luck all.

[Puluz]

boh nothing to do since have the pet already and the achievements and nothing to use the dagger to... mehh. just gimme my presents already!

[Silverthorn]

I've been running 16 characters each day through You're a Mean One. I've completed 3 days so far, and I've seen one Clockwork Rocket Bot and the rest was trash. RNG is random, but I plan to keep beating on it!

If Lumpy was on my AH, I'd save myself a little time.

[Aycee71]

I've been running a number of alternates in doing the daily. I got Lumpy on the first day and then this morning I got my second Lumpy and then also Clockwork on my last alt. <insert happy dance>

[Frozenpets]

ive run it twice each day, second one today had lumpy. im so happy!!!

10 min later, someone put up a gundrak hatchling super cheap(ive been unlucky there) up to 438 unique, yay for gundrak AND lumpy in the same day! woo!

[Cloud]

Got my second Lumpy today from this holiday stretch (third overall) and no clockwork rocket bot yet

Edit to add that I got yet another lumpy today, thats my 4th overall, 3rd this season (and no clockwork rocket bot)

[Gobbletone]

I've been pretty lucky this week I guess, I got a Magical Crawdad after 143 attempts and Lumpy on my first try.

[Hellomynameis]

Edit:
Day 1, 11 chars: 1x Lumpy
Day 2, 11 chars: 2x Lumpy
Day 3, 11 chars: Nothing
Day 4, 11 chars: 1x Lumpy
Day 5, 11 chars: 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot
Day 6, 11 chars: Nothing
Day 7, 11 chars: 1x Miniature Winter Veil Tree
Day 8, 11 chars: 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot
Day 9: afk
Day 10: afk (Christmas Eve)
Day 11. 2 chars: 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot
Day 12, 6 chars: 1x Miniature Winter Veil Tree
Day 13, 11 chars: 1x Lumpy
Day 14. 8 chars: 1x Lumpy and 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot
Day 15, 1 char: Nothing
Day 16, 4 char: Nothing
Day 17: afk
Day 18, 3 chars: 1x Clockwork Rocket Bot (Happy new year!)

Done.. >.<
123 tries, 6x Lumpy, 5x Clockwork Rocket Bot, 2x Miniature Winter Veil Tree

[NathKnave]

Done.. >.<
123 tries, 6x Lumpy, 5x Clockwork Rocket Bot, 2x Miniature Winter Veil Tree

My hat is off to you!

I did this every day on six toons for a week, and it made me hate life. I finally got my Lumpy though (and two more Clockwork Rocket Bots). I was very happy I wouldn't have to do this any more.

It's possible that it may not have been quite as bad if they weren't all Alliance characters on a pvp realm. It was a very long trip to and from Ironforge, and a very unbalanced ratio of Horde to Alliance (even with cross realms).