Viscous Horrors -- Will it drop in price?

[Badpathing]

There are plenty of pets that are high in demand when their price drops. In WoD this pet won't sell for more than 20k. I pity anyone who's paying 100k+ and/ or giving away their precious CE's/ TCG's to obtain one. Patience is a virtue.

Heh, that is presumptuous to assume they are 'precious'. I had a few extra D3 CEs and I gladly traded one for my VH. Value is relative my friend.

[Milkywind]

Personally, I would never pay for this pet.

When WoD comes out, I'd rather go at the old raid with 2-3 people and try farming for it every week.

This pet WILL become farmamble, so that's why I am predicting a price drop. Why pay 100k now, when you can farm it easily later on?

[Poofah]

This pet WILL become farmable, so that's why I am predicting a price drop. Why pay 100k now, when you can farm it easily later on?

The drop rate is lower than Onyxian Drake or Ashes of Alar. Those raids are absolutely trivial to beat, but would you consider those mounts easy to farm? A 1 week lockout coupled with sub-2% droprate means a diligent farmer could expect less than 1 per year on average. UJ doesn't have data for the BMAH any more, but as recently as a few months ago, those mounts both went for 100k+. The difficulty of the raid doesn't seem like much of a factor here -- unless the droprate goes up, or it becomes available through some other route, I don't see a reason to expect a big increase in supply.

Also consider that we have had significant inflation with every xpac. Mobs and quests will yield a lot more gold, so most of us will have a lot more to spend, which would tend to push prices higher across the board.

But of course, there is absolutely nothing stopping VH from being put on a vendor somewhere, or rewarded via RaF, or having the drop rate bumped up, or being duped, or etc. These sources of supply are impossible to predict but would obviously cause the price to plummet.

[Waynebrady]

I was going to make the point about gold inflation earlier but forgot to post it. As expansions come and go the average amount of gold each player has goes up. A pet that was 1000g two years ago is around 5-10k now. This would lead me to believe that unless the amount of Viscous Horrors suddenly jumps significantly, which I doubt (although it will slowly increase over time) the price may even go up as time goes on.

As OP and I discussed earlier, and differ in opinion, I still feel that it's extremely low drop rate is going to keep the price steady around 75-80k. I'll eat my words if I ever see it hovering around 20-40k.

[Nagini]

comparing it to LFR pets doesn't make a lot of sense, since they are much more easily available (and you don't have to run the whole instance for them) The main issue i see with farming them is the sheer size of the instance, and the fact that this pet drops from a boss beyond the mountdropping bosses. For people farming mounts, they will naturally come across the direhorn and ji-kun hatchling, but its only the question if they will continue on for the pet. DA is not going to be soloable so easily(understatement much?) so people might not think it worth their time/effort. People who do run the instance for the pet are probebly people who want the pet for themselves, meaning that they won't make it to the market. That, combined with the droprate being so low, i expect to see little change in the price.

in fact, im more worried about the price of living fluids, which are only available on LFR difficulty, meaning that once the majority hits level 100, there will be few to no groups running that anymore. might be worth to stock a few just incase.

[Avalee]

There will be less demand over time as more collectors get it.

You forget that the new expansion brings new collectors. Every new expansion, the amount of players rise significantly. A percentage of those may become big pet collectors and they do want that Horror. So I'm not so sure about less demand over time.

[Dragonwizard]

Personally, I would never pay for this pet.

When WoD comes out, I'd rather go at the old raid with 2-3 people and try farming for it every week.

This pet WILL become farmamble, so that's why I am predicting a price drop. Why pay 100k now, when you can farm it easily later on?

I use to feel that way about things that can be bought on the AH or traded for. But then not only did my available play time drop (damn RL getting in the way lol) but I sat back and thought about the hours and hours that would be spent farming things like that in a group even if it's a small group of 2-3. While in the group not only do you have a chance to loose a roll on it when it does drop but you have to actually farm 2-3 of them (one for each of you) so it will take even longer. I personally would rather spend just a part of that time farming the 100k gold to just buy the pet and be done with it.

You could get lucky and have 2-3 of them drop in the first few months and have it be faster than farming the 100k but the chances of that are slim to none. Even if the other people in your group don't want the pet and are just helping you out the chances of you getting it to drop in less time than it would take to farm the gold is slim.

[Badpathing]

The drop rate is lower than Onyxian Drake or Ashes of Alar.

Neither of which are tradeable, and has incentive to farm after getting it. The pet, I will most likely run the dungeon every week despite having it (assuming solo capable or easy with a friend). I will not be alone in that respect.

Also consider that we have had significant inflation with every xpac. Mobs and quests will yield a lot more gold, so most of us will have a lot more to spend, which would tend to push prices higher across the board.
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I am not sure this even matters. When we discuss the price, we are using current valuations. If inflation goes up, and the cost stays at 120k, then the cost has gone down.

I guess what I am saying is that inflation is irrelevant to this discussion. What most people seem to be interested in is how much the price will drop.

[Badpathing]

There will be less demand over time as more collectors get it.

You forget that the new expansion brings new collectors. Every new expansion, the amount of players rise significantly. A percentage of those may become big pet collectors and they do want that Horror. So I'm not so sure about less demand over time.

It does not matter if there are new players. Those players will come, get the pet if they want it, and move on. New players are a bump in the demand, perhaps. Over time, demand will go down.

[Poofah]

The pet, I will most likely run the dungeon every week despite having it (assuming solo capable or easy with a friend). I will not be alone in that respect.

Aside from pets, there's nothing of value in ToT after Ji-Kun. And the drop rate is <1%. If the price stays in the 100k range, that would be an expected payout of <1k from VHs each time you run it. Someone whose goal is making gold will have much much better options available to them. I think it's very optimistic to think that anyone other than pet collectors will run this with any regularity.

Neither of which are tradeable, and has incentive to farm after getting it.

Very true. This is not a good example to talk about supply. But it's very relevant to talk about demand. The question is: if I don't have the mount, should I farm for it, or should I buy it from BMAH? There is clearly enough demand to keep these mounts well over 100k on the BMAH. Therefore there are clearly plenty of people who prefer (and are able) to pay 100k+, instead of farming for it.

If inflation goes up, and the cost stays at 120k, then the cost has gone down.

I guess what I am saying is that inflation is irrelevant to this discussion. What most people seem to be interested in is how much the price will drop.

That's just not how inflation works. If supply/demand stay the same, and people have twice as much gold, then they'll spend twice as much to get it.

The idea that the price *will* drop is purely an assumption. It could easily go up. Pets only became cageable at the beginning of MoP, so we have no experience with how the price of high-end pets will change between xpacs. Pets retain relevance between xpacs, unlike gear and trade goods. This is similar to BoE mounts and other cosmetic items, which gold hoarders have been using to protect themselves against inflation for a long time. There aren't many raid-drop BoE mounts from old content, but the example I can think of (Crimson Deathcharger) has trended up over time, not down.

[Ishildur]

Taking into account inflation I'd guess in say 8 months from WoD launch the horrors might be down to as low as 35k. People will run old raids with a few of their buddies for recipes, mounts and transmog/trade stuff, and if you have a few people who want specific things bit of extra clearing to primordus isn't unreasonable. It will be a very very long time until you can pick this pet up for 5k or anything near prices that low. It's too far in and too low a drop rate for the prices to ever go very far down.

Now a more interesting point though is whether the drop rates will be increased at some point in WoD. With fewer people overall running ToT from when it was current content they might bump the drop rate up a few content patches into WoD, same as certain mounts from old content have had their drop rates increased. A change like that would make for a more significant change to the prices than anything else.

As for the living fluid, I'd be very surprised if it weren't added as a possible drop in normal once WoD goes live and LFR for Pandaria raids goes deader than Deathwing's birthday party.

[Badpathing]

Aside from pets, there's nothing of value in ToT after Ji-Kun. And the drop rate is <1%. If the price stays in the 100k range, that would be an expected payout of <1k from VHs each time you run it. Someone whose goal is making gold will have much much better options available to them. I think it's very optimistic to think that anyone other than pet collectors will run this with any regularity.

I won't argue this point, but simply vendoring the loot from bosses, etc is usually fairly lucrative especially if you can do it quickly. Additionally, don't assume I (others) would stop at Primordus, we might go for the other pets as well. I don't raid, so this is kind of my 'thing' and I don't mind the drop chances.

I remember when MC first became farmable. I made quite a bit of money each week running it from crafting items and gold.

[Badpathing]

The idea that the price *will* drop is purely an assumption. It could easily go up. Pets only became cageable at the beginning of MoP, so we have no experience with how the price of high-end pets will change between xpacs. Pets retain relevance between xpacs, unlike gear and trade goods. This is similar to BoE mounts and other cosmetic items, which gold hoarders have been using to protect themselves against inflation for a long time. There aren't many raid-drop BoE mounts from old content, but the example I can think of (Crimson Deathcharger) has trended up over time, not down.

I would be pretty surprised if this happened. The BoE mount takes a lot of work, and not really a great comparison. Still, you are right about the price.

I don't mind being wrong, because I will most likely be running this every month. And if I am wrong, there is a good chance it will just mean money in my pocket.

Good points in this thread.

[Poofah]

The BoE mount takes a lot of work, and not really a great comparison.

Sadly you are right -- we don't have any really great comparisons.

Now a more interesting point though is whether the drop rates will be increased at some point in WoD... A change like that would make for a more significant change to the prices than anything else.

Definitely. They could even put it on a vendor, like they did with the fox kit in tol'barad. And of course it could always get duped. So whatever conclusions we might draw from this type of thread, it could easily get trumped by factors we can't predict or control.

[Azrile]

Keep in mind, it is the 8th boss in. Even soloing isnt going to be easy (or fun) after getting nothing for several weeks in a row.

Exactly this. ToT maybe soloable, but not by most players. And unless they change the droprate, you are going to do it a bunch of times.

I think the price is going to go up because not nearly as many people are going to be doing it. And even at 100, you are talking about spending 3 or more hours per week ( if you can solo it) and will get nothing most weeks.

[Azrile]

but there will always be loads of people wanting to buy it, which will keep the price high.

This is exactly where our opinions differ. I simply think that over time, there is no way that demand can persist. But, due to the rarity, you will always be able to charge a premium.

I would expect to see them in the 20k range.

As to argumentation, I am right there with you and no offense is taken, or offered. I used the word argue in the heart of the first definition, though it seems most people assume the second.

1. give reasons or cite evidence in support of an idea, action, or theory, typically with the aim of persuading others to share one's view.
2. exchange or express diverging or opposite views, typically in a heated or angry way.

No way this goes down to 20k unless they drastically increase the drop rate. Maybe in the expansion AFTER WoD when more classes will be able to solo it. The number of people running ToT is going to drop dramatically when WoD launches. This isn´t running Naxx or MC.. Running ToT up until the 8th boss is like running Firelands right now. it is no joke and most people won´t be able to solo it. Sure, you will be able to use OpenRaid to find a group.. but that will be a handful of people per week. Overall you aren´t going to have anywhere near as many people running it as you have now and the demand is NOT going down much because there is only like 1% of the people who have it now and even now ToT isn´t run that much.

When people can solo it easily, then you will have ´profiteers´ who run it every week for the pet and prices will come down. But I don´t think many people will be grouping up to run content for a very low droprate on a pet. You are talking about running it for a couple months, each week, for a few hours.. for a pet. That is not a group activity

Just to put it in perspective. Not a single person on my server has it.

And to be honest. Listen to this ´ hey guildmates, anyone want to spend 2 hours doing a raid from last expansion for a 1.5% chance of getting a pet to drop?´ you think that is going to work 50ish times?

[Dolz]

Price drop? I've yet to see one in either the Alliance or Horde AH on Trollbane-US.

Also I was wondering if someone could clear this up for me. From what I've read Viscous Horrors don't drop for you if you are doing the raid from the raid finder. If this is correct it makes getting this even harder for those of us who do PUG raiding.

[Rioriel]

Also I was wondering if someone could clear this up for me. From what I've read Viscous Horrors don't drop for you if you are doing the raid from the raid finder. If this is correct it makes getting this even harder for those of us who do PUG raiding.

Yeah, Normal or Heroic only.